But greater freedoms contributed to intensified competition among ethno-regional elites and other factions across the country who are keen to press claims for a fairer share of resources, greater autonomy and an end to perceived injustices. It also brought a long-overdue relaxation of repressive measures. The appointment of Abiy, an Oromo, heralded the end of Tigrayan pre-eminence in the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the coalition, now dissolved, that ruled since 1991. The Oromo, Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, drove the protests with their complaints of political and economic marginalisation, but the Amhara, the second largest, also participated, airing similar grievances. The regions should instead strike a deal whereby Tigray grants political representation and language rights to native Amharic-speaking communities in the disputed areas.Įthiopia, Africa’s second most populous country, is undergoing a volatile transition that began in 2015 with widespread anti-government unrest. Both Tigray and Amhara factions should concede ground by dropping hardline stances on the dispute. Addis Ababa should offer concessions to politically isolated Tigray to come to the table. Federal authorities should convene political, academic and religious leaders from both regions to start healing the rift. It remains a flashpoint under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whose ascent was presaged by Amhara protests over the territories and Tigrayan political domination. The dispute came into focus in 1991, when Tigrayan rebels seized national power as the heart of a multi-ethnic coalition and, as the Amhara see it, also annexed historical Amhara land to their own region. The tensions over Amhara claims to land administered by Tigray sparked proxy violence in 2018 and could do so again given the lack of appetite for compromise. Tigray and Amhara, Ethiopia’s two powerful northern regions, are locked in a dangerous standoff. The parties could consider an outcome in which Tigray guarantees political representation and language rights to minority populations in the disputed territories. They should urge Tigrayan and Amhara factions to temper provocative stances and explore compromise. What should be done? Federal leaders should provide incentives to Tigray’s ruling party to come to the table. Confrontation between the regions would draw federal military intervention, potentially exposing ethno-regional cracks in the army’s cohesion. Tigray’s government is arming itself as hardliners promote secession. ![]() Amhara nationalists could stoke sentiment against Tigray’s ruling class during the campaign. ![]() Why does it matter? Ethiopia’s delayed elections will likely be sometime in 2021. Given dim prospects for a comprehensive settlement, the dispute could escalate into conflict. What’s new? Tigray and Amhara, the powerhouse regions of northern Ethiopia, are locked in a bitter land dispute exacerbated by national politicking that pits their elites against each other.
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